Skip to main content

Posts

Showing posts from December, 2024

Final Scorecard: FDL Model's 2024 Election Predictions Almost Perfect

The clean Republican sweep in the 2024 elections came as no surprise to FDL Review: On November 4 , we predicted that Republicans would win the House, Senate, and presidency, even though betting markets thought there was only a 36% chance of this happening. Now that the results are certified, here’s our final scorecard. Presidential Election: 96% Right We accurately called 48 of the 50 states in the presidential election, where President Donald Trump managed the best result for a Republican since George H. W. Bush in 1988. The only states we got wrong were Michigan and Nevada. Across the ten battleground states, our final projection was off by an average of 1.65 points and overestimated Vice President Kamala Harris by 0.66 point. We were vindicated in our prediction of a Trump victory in the national popular vote, which betting markets thought he had only a 26% chance of winning. He outdid our final estimate of a 0.73-point victory, winning the popular vote by  1.47 . Our sub-arg...