The FDL Review election model predicts that former President Donald Trump will win reelection, that the GOP will retake the Senate, and that Republicans will retain their House majority.
Trump is expected to win the Electoral College 291–247, taking the battleground states of Arizona (by 3.81 percentage points), Georgia (1.50), North Carolina (2.45), Pennsylvania (0.18), and Wisconsin (5.21).
Vice President Kamala Harris, meanwhile, is expected to take Michigan (by 1.45 percentage points), Minnesota (4.28), Nevada (0.73), New Hampshire (2.85), and Virginia (5.18).
Giving Harris a boost at the margins, her voters are a hair more excited than Trump’s about participating in the election. And recent polls indicate that the vice president has momentum, winning over “late deciders” by double digits.
Finally, our model predicts that the GOP will win 225 seats in the House, prevailing in the national House popular vote by 0.29 percentage point. Democrats are expected to win 210 seats.
The core inputs for our model are public polling, which we adjust on a state-by-state basis for past accuracy; state fundamentals; and relative enthusiasm. Our model correctly suggested that President Joe Biden would win in 2020, almost nailing the final electoral margin.
— Declan M. Hurley
Trump is expected to win the Electoral College 291–247, taking the battleground states of Arizona (by 3.81 percentage points), Georgia (1.50), North Carolina (2.45), Pennsylvania (0.18), and Wisconsin (5.21).
Additionally, our model predicts that Trump will win the national popular vote by 0.73 percentage point.
Giving Harris a boost at the margins, her voters are a hair more excited than Trump’s about participating in the election. And recent polls indicate that the vice president has momentum, winning over “late deciders” by double digits.
Our model also predicts that Republicans will flip the Senate, netting three seats—in Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia—for 52 total.
However, Republicans are expected to narrowly lose close Senate elections in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Finally, our model predicts that the GOP will win 225 seats in the House, prevailing in the national House popular vote by 0.29 percentage point. Democrats are expected to win 210 seats.
The core inputs for our model are public polling, which we adjust on a state-by-state basis for past accuracy; state fundamentals; and relative enthusiasm. Our model correctly suggested that President Joe Biden would win in 2020, almost nailing the final electoral margin.
— Declan M. Hurley
Comments
Post a Comment