FDL Model (10/19/24): Republicans Leading 291–247 in Electoral College, 52–48 in Senate, 226–209 in House
If the 2024 elections were held today, the FDL Review model finds that Republicans would retake the Senate and presidency while holding the House of Representatives.
According to our model, GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump would win 291 electoral votes to Vice President Kamala Harris’s 247. This would make Trump the first president to win a second nonconsecutive term since Grover Cleveland in 1892.
Further, our model finds that Trump would win the popular vote by 0.75 percentage point, powered by what would be the tightest presidential margins in California and New York since 2004 and 1988, respectively. Trump would lose California by 22.83 points, compared to 29.16 in 2020. In the Empire State, he would lose by 11.71 points—half his 2020 margin of defeat there.
The GOP would prove similarly successful in the U.S. Senate elections if they were held today, flipping three seats—in Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia—for 52 total.
If the 2024 elections were held today, the GOP would win the national House popular vote by 0.54 point and take home 226 seats. That would yield a 17-seat GOP majority, up from eight today.
As we wrote when introducing our model in 2020, it “emphasizes an FDL-developed metric that measures each state’s fundamentals and also considers past election results, public-opinion polling with adjustments for [past] accuracy (or lack thereof), and enthusiasm.” Our model correctly projected that President Joe Biden would win in 2020, almost nailing the final electoral margin.
According to our model, GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump would win 291 electoral votes to Vice President Kamala Harris’s 247. This would make Trump the first president to win a second nonconsecutive term since Grover Cleveland in 1892.
Our model finds that Trump would win Arizona (by 2.75 p.p.), Georgia (1.35), North Carolina (1.86), Pennsylvania (0.11), and Wisconsin (4.85) if the election were held today. Harris would prevail in Michigan (by 0.34 p.p.), Minnesota (4.02), Nevada (0.86), New Hampshire (4.98), and Virginia (4.79).
Further, our model finds that Trump would win the popular vote by 0.75 percentage point, powered by what would be the tightest presidential margins in California and New York since 2004 and 1988, respectively. Trump would lose California by 22.83 points, compared to 29.16 in 2020. In the Empire State, he would lose by 11.71 points—half his 2020 margin of defeat there.
The GOP would prove similarly successful in the U.S. Senate elections if they were held today, flipping three seats—in Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia—for 52 total.
Republicans would come within three percentage points of flipping three more seats (in Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin), indicating that a 55-seat GOP majority is within reach.
If the 2024 elections were held today, the GOP would win the national House popular vote by 0.54 point and take home 226 seats. That would yield a 17-seat GOP majority, up from eight today.
As we wrote when introducing our model in 2020, it “emphasizes an FDL-developed metric that measures each state’s fundamentals and also considers past election results, public-opinion polling with adjustments for [past] accuracy (or lack thereof), and enthusiasm.” Our model correctly projected that President Joe Biden would win in 2020, almost nailing the final electoral margin.
— Declan M. Hurley
Comments
Post a Comment