FDL Model (10/19/24): Republicans Leading 291–247 in Electoral College, 52–48 in Senate, 226–209 in House
If the 2024 elections were held today, the FDL Review model finds that Republicans would retake the Senate and presidency while holding the House of Representatives. According to our model, GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump would win 291 electoral votes to Vice President Kamala Harris’s 247. This would make Trump the first president to win a second nonconsecutive term since Grover Cleveland in 1892 . Our model finds that Trump would win Arizona (by 2.75 p.p.), Georgia (1.35), North Carolina (1.86), Pennsylvania (0.11), and Wisconsin (4.85) if the election were held today. Harris would prevail in Michigan (by 0.34 p.p.), Minnesota (4.02), Nevada (0.86), New Hampshire (4.98), and Virginia (4.79). Further, our model finds that Trump would win the popular vote by 0.75 percentage point, powered by what would be the tightest presidential margins in California and New York since 2004 and 1988 , respectively. Trump would lose California by 22.83 points, compared to 29.16 in 2020 . In the