FDL Review

If the 2024 elections were held today, the FDL Review model finds that Republicans would retake the Senate and presidency while holding the House of Representatives. This is unchanged from our findings last week. Over the past week, former President Donald Trump’s advantage in the Electoral College shrank from 44 votes to six. This is because Vice President Kamala Harris captured a 0.007-point advantage in Pennsylvania, which Trump led last week by 0.11. Hurting Trump at the margins, polling indicates that Harris’s supporters are marginally more enthusiastic and certain to vote than the former president’s. This could be the result of Trump’s lackluster ground-game operation. That said, Trump’s 272 votes are a safer bet than Harris’s 266. Our model indicates that he leads in all ‘his’ states by at least 1.46 percentage points, whereas two of Harris’s states—Pennsylvania and Michigan—are within a percentage point. Trump would win the national popular vote by 1.39 percentage points if t...

If the 2024 elections were held today, the FDL Review model finds that Republicans would retake the Senate and presidency while holding the House of Representatives. According to our model, GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump would win 291 electoral votes to Vice President Kamala Harris’s 247. This would make Trump the first president to win a second nonconsecutive term since Grover Cleveland in 1892 . Our model finds that Trump would win Arizona (by 2.75 p.p.), Georgia (1.35), North Carolina (1.86), Pennsylvania (0.11), and Wisconsin (4.85) if the election were held today. Harris would prevail in Michigan (by 0.34 p.p.), Minnesota (4.02), Nevada (0.86), New Hampshire (4.98), and Virginia (4.79). Further, our model finds that Trump would win the popular vote by 0.75 percentage point, powered by what would be the tightest presidential margins in California and New York since 2004 and 1988 , respectively. Trump would lose California by 22.83 points, compared to 29.16 in 2020 . In the ...